Balance is Blind – Hurricanes on the Horizon

An advisory for the surprises of nature

 I have heard the theory that when nature strikes—whether personified by an earthquake, torrential rainfall or a hurricane—it is an uncompromising force with the sole mission of restoring balance. In an attempt to reacquire the environment’s stability, it works without prejudice as an automatic retort to naturally reinstate equilibrium and to combat decades of unnatural burdens it has incurred.

Some disagree with this argument, but what is fact is once again, the Atlantic Caribbean hurricane season is upon the BVI; as many environmental specialists and hurricane survivalists will advise, preparation by home and yacht owners is the word that cannot be stressed enough.

Understanding the Adversary

Department of Disaster Management Director Sharleen Dabreo explained that our hurricane season is produced as a result of low pressure systems affecting Atlantic waters or the Caribbean sea. “This is based on the trends over the years,” she said. “It eventually develops into a storm and when it gets to about 74 mph, then you classify it as a hurricane and it’s at that point where it’s actually named.”

Hurricanes have only become complicated due to man’s development, our impact on the ozone and climate change. “There are a lot of factors that are playing into the whole climate process that’s causing these hurricanes to become more intense,” the director said. “These are natural processes that have to take place…but when [they] are impacted by conditions that are imposed by man, then you have these detrimental effects.”

The DDM director continued, expressing that the best retort to a hurricane or more wisely, reaction to the early forecast is for property and yacht owners to be proactive in protection of their living situation and vessels. “In people’s minds, a hurricane comes and it’s disaster. It only becomes a disaster when you cannot respond.”

2013 Season Forecast

The Atlantic Caribbean Hurricane Season runs from June 1 till November 30 with the peak being August to the early part of October; however, storms are changing from their previous patterns. “We’re seeing different trends. We’re seeing tropical storms that are occurring outside of that season,” said Dabreo. “You’re seeing changes in patterns.”

Scientific models incorporating data on El Niño and La Niña patterns have been run by a multitude of institutions across the world, showing little disparity between their results.

The DDM director relayed that these organisations include Professors William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach of Colorado State University, who are lead scientists on hurricane predictions in the BVI’s part of the world, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and institutions in Australia and the UK.

“This year they are saying that 2013 will be more active than the median years, so the median years run from 1981 to 2010,” she said. “For this year, they’re estimating 9 hurricanes, 18 storms, 95 storm days where storms can develop. They’re estimating 40 hurricane days, 4 major hurricanes and 9 major hurricane days. What is even more significant, is the probability for a major hurricane—Cat 3 -5 –tracking into the Caribbean is at 61%. The average over 1981 to 2010 was 42%,” the director continued.

Still, it is very hard to predict hurricanes and the erratic ‘wobbling effect’ as described by the director. The change can be so rapid. With Hurricane Earl in August 2010—the last serious year for storms—the system curved it away from the BVI despite predictions that had the island on a state of alert.

Many would have witnessed Earl’s provision of a natural pruning of the island, which was arguably a benefit to some who beheld a new clear view for sunsets at their properties.

Preparation is Everything

It’s the easiest thing in theory: there’s an impending hurricane; therefore, all a home or yacht owner can do is prepare. This can be organised months ahead to make the process as smooth as possible.

“Too many people wait until we issue a warning and then they’re rushing to the supermarket,” the DDM director said. “From June you need to start getting into the practice. When I go to the supermarket, I may buy a few more cans of dry goods that can last me for 6 months so you’re not in the supermarket rushing to get things at that point.”

Virgin Island property and yacht owners are always advised to walk with awareness about the weather reports. Due to the increase in probability of a hurricane in the Caribbean this year, it is highly recommended that people prepare early.

Following the predictions report that was released by Colorado State in April 2013, this month will see the publication of an updated version and then another report will be published in August.

Hurricane Season is the annual event that invokes apprehension, but it need not be if you are prepared. Also, the Virgin Islands are renowned for hurricane parties when groups get together and enjoy each other’s company during the obligatory impacts of nature.

Concluding, if you are prepared, don’t worry, it will blow over.

Stay up-to-date with weather conditions and advisories at www.bviddm.com or http://www.noaa.gov/